By Maghawari Shihatah Diyab, "The Water Crisis Will Be the Cause of the Next Middle Eastern War", [Cairo, Al-Wafd in Arabic, 16 May 91, p. 10].

It is an inescapable fact that the world now suffers to one degree or another from crises in renewable, usable resources. Some of the world's regions suffer from a shortage on the quantity of fresh water, some regions suffer from the quality of the water, and others suffer from a problem of both quantity and quality.

In fact, if we look at the overall balance of fresh water in nature, we could see that the total volume of water on the globe is estimated to be about 1,400 million cubic kilometers, of which 97 percent is the water of seas and oceans, which is salt water, and that three percent, most of which is found in the form of above ground and underground water, is distributed in the following manner: .03 percent is river water, and 24 percent of the total 3 percent that is fresh water is underground water. Looking comprehensively at the Arab nation, we see that there is a crisis in the balance of fresh water and that this crisis will intensify and increase in severity if immediate and decisive measures are not taken to contain it.

We would like to stress that fresh water resources are important and necessary not only for drinking, industry and domestic use, but also for food production, especially of the grains, of which the Arab world imports 60 percent of its needs.

It is certain that the vast areas of land of up to 15 million square kilometers include millions of feddans that would be arable of they were provided with the necessary factor of water. Thus it can be said that the food gap from which the Arab world suffers is in fact a crisis in the balance of water in the Arab world. According to reports available on the Arab world, the water balance needed to cover the total needs of its population now and in the future can be summarized as follows:

First: It is expected that by the year 2000 the population of the Arab world will reach 265 million, and in 2010 it will be 285 million; in other words, the population is growing at a rate that varies between 2.9 and three percent, according to statistics done by UNESCO.

Second: According to statistics done by agencies such as UNESCO, the total cultivated land in the Arab region overall is 45 million hectares--"108 million feddans." As for irrigated land, its area is 10 million hectares, which is equal to 24 million feddans.

Third: By examining the reports and statements coming from UNESCO in 1988 on the water balance demand and supply for the Arab nation which was calculated for 1985 as follows:

1) Currently 139,853 million cubic meters of surface water resources are utilized; of underground water resources, 22,552 million cubic meters; and of other resources, "rain, fog, etc." 9,724 million cubic meters, for a total of 172,129 million cubic meters.

2) The demand for drinking is 7,016 million cubic meters; industry, 1,344 million cubic meters; and agriculture, 296,602 million cubic meters, for a total of 304,962 million cubic meters.

3) The 1985 deficit, 304,962-172,129 = 132,832 [as published] million cubic meters. We must surmise the extent of the expected deficit in coming years in light of the population increase just to maintain current activities as they are now. It is clear from that that there is a deficit of about 44 percent between water supplies and demand, and it is obvious that this deficit has increased over the past five years.

If we suppose an increase of .5 percent a year in the area of land put under irrigation, which is less than what can be projected in light of the large increase in the population, then irrigation needs alone will increase from 80 to 160 billion cubic meters a year until the year 2000. The deficit will increase in the countries situated on the African continent in particular because of their climatic and development situations. This deficit can be overcome only by the development and exploitation of underground reserves in the Arabian Desert, judicious use of water, the use of advanced technological methods, the recycling of drainage water, and the use of technological methods in the field of research on the extraction of underground water, as well as the use of advanced means to desalinate sea water.

Moreover, the unification of efforts to discover unstudied areas, and working to evaluate the quality and quantity of the underground reserves ought to result from a comprehensive visualization of the geologic structure and hydrologic situation, as well as lead to better exploitation of water resources. It should be mentioned that laying down a unified policy on the exploitation of underground reserves based in scientific planning that relies on confirmed data will help to close the deficit in the water balance.

A review of the current methods of dealing with surface water resources, such as rivers and rain, or underground water, such as the water reserves in the Arab nation, will result in reduction the deficit previously referred to.

All this requires that scientific programs be established immediately to decisively confront this problem, especially since the rivers upon which the Arab world primarily depends arise outside the Arab nation, such as the Nile, the Euphrates, the Tigris, the Jordan, the Shebeli, and the Juba. This leads us to the painful fact--the world conflict which radically changed its map during the past few months.

We should mention what Israel is doing in the way of repeated attempts to appropriate the greatest share of the supply of the Jordan, Hasbani, and Litani Rivers, and that it is busy implementing projects for storing water resources at the expense of the share of the Arab countries, which affects the development of these states, and enables Israel to expand in the occupied Arab land and build settlements to settle immigrating Jews.

The Arab League must give attention to protecting water resources, which would ensure real development of the Arab countries through which these rivers flow.